Europe should be prepared for more of the ruthless and coordinated attacks that ISIS carried out in Paris last year, officials say. The militant group is planning more large-scale, "special forces-style" assaults that don't even necessarily need to be coordinated from Syria.
That disturbing scenario was laid out in a report by Europol - Europe's law enforcement agency -- released Monday.
The
report, entitled "Changes in modus operandi of Islamic State terrorist
attacks," paints a picture of a terror group whose methods keep evolving
and whose threat is two fold: Coordinated attacks and lone wolf
operatives.
"The Paris attacks, and
subsequent investigation, appear to indicate a shift towards a broader
strategy of [ISIS] going global, of them specifically attacking France,
but also the possibly of attacks against other Member States of the EU
in the near future," the report said.
The report details some of the ways ISIS is adapting. Here are some of the key findings:
Soft targets are the most vulnerable
Attacks will be primarily directed at soft targets because of the impact and mass casualties they generate, the report says.
Intelligence
also suggests that ISIS has developed a command structure to plan and
coordinate "special forces style" operations abroad. This could mean
that more Paris-style attacks are currently being planned and prepared,
the report says.
Attacks aren't always planned from within Syria
In addition to training facilities in Syria, there are also smaller scale training camps in the EU and in Balkan countries.
ISIS-inspired attacks do not necessarily have to be coordinated from Syria.
"Central
command in Syria is believed to map out a general strategy, but leaves
tactical freedom to local leaders to adapt their actions to
circumstances on the spot," the report says. Operatives can choose their
targets based on capability and resources, which leaves room for
spontaneity and makes it hard for law enforcement to identify targets
and suspects.
Recruits are young and not necessarily religious
Recruitment
into ISIS happens quickly, without necessarily requiring a long
radicalization process, the report says. The "romantic" prospect of
being part of something important and exciting may also play a role in
recruiting.
Peer pressure has replaced some of the religious components of recruiting, the report says.
Younger
recruits are more impressionable and radicalize quicker. Less than half
of all people arrested for joining ISIS or expressing an intention to
do so have relevant knowledge about their religion. This makes them
vulnerable to interpretations of the Koran that fit ISIS logic, the
report says
Recruiters
use survival training to test recruits' fitness and ability. "Sports
activities have been used for combat and interrogation resistance
training," the report says.
A
"significant" portion of foreign fighters were diagnosed with mental
problems prior to joining the terror group. However, the report doesn't
specify how they know this and what types of mental issues fighters may
be suffering from. The report also says that a large portion of recruits
have criminal records.
Refugees are not a threat, but...
There is no concrete evidence that terror groups (ISIS or otherwise) are using the current refugee crisis
to slip into Europe unnoticed. Instead, the report says that there's a
more "real and imminent" danger that members of the refugee population
will become vulnerable to radicalization once in Europe, and that
they're being specifically targeted by terror recruiters.
They use encrypted communication tools
ISIS
has taken advantage of the availability of secure and encrypted
communication methods such as WhatsApp, Skype and Viber for
communication and to procure goods and services such as weapons and fake
IDs.
How they finance attacks in Europe is largely unknown
Travel
costs, car rentals, safe houses and weapons require considerable sums
of money, the report says. However, there is no evidence of ISIS
-financing networks in the region.
Al Qaeda is still a threat
The
report warns that Al Qaeda is still a "factor" in the region and a
reason for the EU to focus broadly on religiously inspired groups.
A separate report charges
that Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, is a greater threat
to the United States in the long term than is ISIS, making the United
States' current single-minded focus on the latter group misguided.
Recently, al Qaeda or Taliban affiliated groups have claimed responsibility for deadly attacks in Pakistan, Burkina Faso and Somalia.
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